The Economist Asks: Philip Tetlock

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Manage episode 271106895 series 1539090
By The Economist. Discovered by Player FM and our community — copyright is owned by the publisher, not Player FM, and audio is streamed directly from their servers. Hit the Subscribe button to track updates in Player FM, or paste the feed URL into other podcast apps.

In the face of electoral upsets and viral black swans, Anne McElvoy asks the cofounder of the Good Judgement “superforecaster” project whether today’s future-gazers should still rely on historical precedent. As pollsters compete to predict who will win the US presidential election, what lessons have yet to be learned from 2016? And, where to spot the next black swan—or at least a dark grey one.

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1915 episodes