Manage episode 268852167 series 30940
Todays episode might be just me .Im not sure how long this will take me. I feel the need to share this with everyone listening because it could be just the thing you needed to hear before you launch that new strategy.
I want to talk about where we all might start looking for opportunity in the market. Today is August 3 2020 and the state of the world is in flux---last week cnbc reported that the coronavirus induced shutdowns have left 47.2% of adult americans jobless although; due to the large scope of the care act we have not seen massive shifts (read foreclosures)
The real estate market has so far been relatively unharmed and with record low mortgage rates, a federal eviction moratorium and a lack of supply of houses. Since I am going to try and make a case here let me take a minute and set the table at least in terms of how Im thinking about this.
The administration acted early by passing a relatively generous unemployment package. During the initial 3 month lockdown everybody that filed for Unemployment got an extra 600 dollars a week and for a lot of low wage workers they made more money than actually going to work. Couple that with the eviction moratorium and everyone got both some much needed time off if they didn’t pay their rent or mortgage everyone was very understanding.
These large scale measures had the intended effect and tamped down some of the fear that still lurks in everyones memory banks of the 2008 meltdown. We saw the stock market take an initial and immediate dive—much more violent that what we saw in 2008 but, in this case due to the sheer size of the cares act----the stock market and its participants saw this as a buying opportunity. The market fell to 19000 on march 20 and today its back at 26,600 this is largely due to the wealth of the baby boomer generation. This boomer generation and its wealth is both an area of opportunity that we should explore and as smart consumers and marketers should be aware of the size and scope of this group.
To refresh your memories---the boomers were born between 1944 and 1964 so they are currently between 56 and 76 years old.
This aging population controls a massive amount of wealth that is essentially locked in two areas----one is real estate and the other is equities (stock market)
As an aside----this is one of the reasons why our advertising arm focuses so heavily on terrestrial radio and television over digital. This boomer generation is largely wealthy and largely conservative and we do particularly well in speaking to them on platforms they trust with language they are comfortable with. If you want to know more about how radio can target these boomers check out myradioexpert.com
OK—back to the episode. A lot of these people lost almost everything in the great recession and the number 1 thing they learned is that if you hang on too long your gonna get burned. Most boomers weren’t ready to retire in 2008 and for those that made it through do not want to get burned this time through.
Let me reiterate this very true point---this group is aging out---they are focusing on how long they are going to live. They will no doubt start selling equities (stocks or moving into very consertive portfolios) and start selling real estate and moving into smaller units in the sun belt. The main thing these older people want to avoid is volatility. They will prefer non-volatile and liquid assets.
At this point we could start talking about how to target this group—what platforms to use and the best messaging but, if we are going to optimize our platforms and messaging lets take a deeper look at this group.
The Silver Tsunami is coming and this pandemic and high level of volatility is amplifying the retirement plans of even the most conservative of this group.
78% of this boomer generation owns homes. According to Zillow for the 10 years between 2007 and 2017 boomers put about 730,000 homes on the market annually. As this demographic continues to age out they will put more and more homes on the market jumping to almost a million new units on the market in the following years.
The silver tsunami! This tsunami is real. The question we should be asking is if this pandemic and the associated market volatility will increase the rate at which this event would naturally occur---meaning---will this group stay and hold or will they cash in their chips.
Sooner or later---all those people that are currently on the unemployed rolls will run out of benefits. Sooner or later people will be evicted from their homes and somewhere along that axis there will be increased level of inventories and downward pressure on home prices. When that happens the volatility hating boomers will run for cover. Why this is something that we all should be seriously considering and baking into our marketing plans (ie don’t be spending all your money on Zillow or facebook like a lot of you are doing right now). This needs to be considered right now because if the last 4 months are any guide to what the future holds we are in for whiplash as we get closer to this election and who knows what happens after the election
I could keep playing this out as there are multiple pathways—each path probably another 30 minutes each with their own variables. So, Im going to end this here—if you want more of these brain dumps send me an email and if you are looking for help in your business—you just don’t know what to do or are having trouble with getting your business back on track send me an email to firstname.lastname@example.org Im happy to try and help See you guys next week.