The February Jobs Report – An initial step before a very big upswing in jobs growth?: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast


Manage episode 286537457 series 2536921
By MUFG EMEA. Discovered by Player FM and our community — copyright is owned by the publisher, not Player FM, and audio is streamed directly from their servers. Hit the Subscribe button to track updates in Player FM, or paste the feed URL into other podcast apps.

U.S. Rates Strategist John Herrmann previews the February employment report. He believes that the February job gain likely may be a solid one, close to +224.1K mom, but that this gain may pale in comparison to the pace of job growth over the months of March through June, which may average stronger than +500.0 per month. Additionally, John’s models continue to forecast remarkably strong GDP growth over the years 2021 and 2022, with the U3 unemployment rate plunging to near 3.98% by year-end 2021 and to near 3.171% by year-end 2022.

With such a favorable economic backdrop and with risk of an FOMC taper announcement in 2H-2021, John’s models continue to predict a further steepening of the 2s-10s and 2s-30 Treasury yield curve over the medium-term.

Disclaimer: (PDF)

230 episodes