Manage episode 262765229 series 2377090
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We start with a brief discussion of Jo Jorgenson, the new Libertarian party candidate. https://heavy.com/news/2020/05/jo-jorgensen-libertarian-nomination/
Then we begin analyzing the Covid19 situation:
- Outbreak in NYC area was never repeated anywhere else in the US, it was far worse than any other location, and the reasons why it only happened in NYC isn't totally clear.
- Flattening the curve was the original reason for the lockdown, we never came close to overwhelming the hospitals.
- Why do people stay entrenched in a position despite all evidence to the contrary even when their position leads to a worse situation.
- Georgia, Texas, Colorado, and some other states have been "open for business" for sometime all posting decreases in deaths and hospitalizations. It has not been warm for the last month in Georgia, using temperature as an explanation for the drop is disingenuous. Nobody will revisit articles like this but the claims that Kemp was killing people was so outrageous. This article "Georgia's experiment in Human Sacrifice" is a perfect example. Completely and absolutely incorrect but no contrition to be had. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/why-georgia-reopening-coronavirus-pandemic/610882/
- The government at no level has ever focused on the vulnerable (old and those with pre-existing conditions). Why? Why are they still not when we know for sure covid19 is obviously hitting older people the hardest? In NJ 50% of the deaths are in nursing homes while that accounts for 0.06% of the population.
- COVID modeling review
- Imperial college, responsible for UK"s policy
The code. It isn’t the code Ferguson ran to produce his famous Report 9. What’s been released on GitHub is a heavily modified derivative of it, after having been upgraded for over a month by a team from Microsoft and others. This revised codebase is split into multiple files for legibility and written in C++, whereas the original program was “a single 15,000 line file that had been worked on for a decade” (this is considered extremely poor practice). A request for the original code was made 8 days ago but ignored,
"It contains 450 different parameters, each of which is either a single float or a float matrix. The majority of these are not based on any ground truth data that I can see and are just magic numbers" presented in the model. Any one of them can change the outputs of the model in unpredictable ways. The model is essentially a giant, complex state machine. Its stochastic, which basically just means its contains random elements - so the no two runs produce the same results. i. https://twitter.com/ThatKatyaGirl/status/1258431484018466817?s=20
"With four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk." J.V Neumann
The 1977 H1N1 flu was caused by the accidental release of a 20-year old laboratory strain b. https://twitter.com/BenGoldhaber/status/1257319855503495171?s=20
1% fatality rate!
smallpox itself is ~30%
- Contact Tracing