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The Dividend Cafe is your portal for market perspective that is virtually conflict-free, rooted in deep philosophical commitments about how capital should be managed, and understandable for all sorts of investors. Host David L. Bahnsen is a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business. He is the author of the books, Crisis of Responsibility: Our Cultural Addiction to Blame and How You Can Cure It (Post Hill Press) and The Case for Dividend Growth: Investing in a Post-Crisis World (Pos ...
 
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The effort to meet face to face with leading money managers, hedge funds, macroeconomic analysts, and other such “life of the party” luminaries began in 2006. Of course, back then I was overseeing just $100 million of client assets and busily deciding if I was going to move my business at UBS to either Bear Stearns or to Morgan Stanley (yes, that w…
 
This week’s Dividend Cafe does cover a lot of topics, but all through the prism of looking at the recent past as well as the pending future. I think you’ll find it an interesting historical journey and, even more so, a good analysis of so many investment and market realities. The market enjoyed a little roller coaster this week, and I also dive int…
 
As I have teed up all week, I am devoting today’s Dividend Cafe to the takeaways from this week’s SALT Conference here in New York City. The quick qualifier I will offer is that this is not going to be a boring recap of all the speakers, all the events, and all the things that you don’t care about. I did not attend the Chainsmokers concert on Tuesd…
 
I have been surprised by the level of interest in my treatment of the “China investment” subject in recent weeks. I kicked things off at the beginning of August with this piece, presenting the background around the tensions between U.S. investment in Chinese equity vs. Chinese fixed income. I followed up with this piece making the case that the Chi…
 
I was going to use this week’s Dividend Cafe to continue the discussion on China, one that I more exhaustively began three weeks ago, then expanded upon last week. And in fact, I have done a podcast interview with Louis Gave of Gavekal Research on this very topic, poking him and pushing him around his thesis that China’s strategic objectives in the…
 
I got a lot of feedback on the special “China edition” Dividend Cafe two weeks ago, but I promised a lot more to come on the subject, and that is what we have today. I don’t only want to walk through various perspectives on Chinese investment, but really want to make sense of what much of this means for hemispheric changes taking place in global mo…
 
We are going to do something unique this week – a deep dive into the massive country that is China. From stocks to bonds to history to currency to geopolitics, this is a big topic, and we do it this week with the sole aim of determining where there may be investment opportunity for our clients, and where there may not be. It is a topic that reveals…
 
I have been thinking a lot about the stock market lately, but not for the reasons most people think about it. The most common thing people wonder about the stock market is something like this: “Is the market about to go up, or down?” I think long-time readers of the Dividend Cafe know how I feel about that question (“long-time” could mean the last …
 
I do something a little different in this week’s Dividend Cafe – I cover three topics, and pretty separate ones from one another at that. In my mind they are all connected – but lots of things are connected in my mind that may not make sense to others. In this case, I see them as distinct topics yet connected in the sense that they all are part of …
 
Like most of you, before the financial crisis, I had never heard the term or uttered the term “quantitative easing.” This somehow becomes completely standard fare in the lexicon of finance in the last 13 years, and it is now uttered by people who I am 1,000% positive do not know what it is dozens of times per day in the media. There is nothing wron…
 
Today I am going to do something an investment manager who writes about investing all the time ought to do more – I am going to talk about the market. Now maybe you think I do that all the time, and you’d be right. But truth be told, my investment writing is very purposely peppered with the stuff I think most matters to investors – behavioral pract…
 
I have always had a sort of unfair pet peeve with people talking about time moving either too fast or too slow. I think what I hate is the thoughtlessness of it – the sort of expected cliche when someone says, “wow, this year has flown by.” For one thing, it can’t possibly feel that way for everybody, yet it seems like everybody says it. Plus, it o…
 
The weird week in the markets doesn't change what I want to be doing with each Dividend Cafe. As of press time, the market is up ~1,000 points on the week, with pre-market futures on this Friday pointing to a +100 point open. The day-to-day and week-by-week movements in the market are not the subject of the Dividend Cafe, but they are what we do ea…
 
We had an interesting week in financial markets … The Fed did exactly what they were expected to by any reasonable person – nothing more, nothing less. They acknowledged the economy is improving, they said they were “talking about talking about” slowing down their quantitative easing. And they indicated two years from now as a time where the fed fu…
 
We had a reasonably boring week in the markets (as of press time, which is after the market open on Friday, the Dow is modestly down on the week but no up or down day this week was particularly significant), but it was somewhat less boring in economic news. What I want to do today is look at the variety of economic news circulating and apply a mark…
 
For now (even from my spot out of the country), I do keep my weekly streak alive with the Dividend Cafe. Going back to the week of Lehman’s bankruptcy in September 2008 I have missed just one weekly commentary, and this weekly podcast really is one of the things I love most about my job. Today’s may be a little shorter than normal, and it is primar…
 
There is no shortage of investment symposiums to attend in my business. Whether it be events put on by the big firms I have worked for over the years (UBS, Morgan Stanley), or symposiums sponsored by various money managers and asset management firms, or just independent groups putting on their own show, I am quite sure I have attended over a hundre…
 
I thought I would do something really fun with this week’s Dividend Cafe, but just as soon as I typed that I realized that, like beauty, fun is in the eye of the beholder. But what “fun” thing I was going to do was write a full recap of the recent Mauldin Strategic Investor Conference that took place from May 5 through May 14, and use that recap to…
 
Anyone who knows me personally knows that I loathe melodrama. And hopefully, anyone who has followed my writing for any period of time, especially my financial writing, knows that I hate click-bait, hype, exaggeration, dramatic hyperbole, shock and awe, and other such media-friendly tactics designed to scare, provoke, or just plain manipulate us. I…
 
One of the questions I get asked the most is, “what scares you right now?” Clients ask it every now and then, or some version of it, but I also get asked in various TV interviews that ever-so-compelling question, “what keeps you up at night?” There is one particular problem with the question I want to address in this week’s Dividend Cafe, and I wan…
 
Tell me what you think about these two statements: (1) Markets are dynamic, ever-changing forces. They are never predictable, their outcomes are never assured, the inputs are constantly adjusting with the ebbs and flows of different circumstances and facts that have to be monitored, studied, and adjusted as needed. (2) There is nothing new under th…
 
This week’s Dividend Cafe is going to dive into the “abnormalcy” of the economic contraction during COVID, the abnormalcy of the economic recovery we are currently in (and will be in for months to come), but then also the “normalcy” of pre-pandemic economic life, and what that means on the other side of this. I will humbly suggest that despite the …
 
The title of this week's Dividend Cafe comes from one of my favorite quotes, ever. "It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so."~ Mark Twain (I attribute to Mark Twain because everyone does, but ironically given the substance of the quote, even this appears to be untrue, with most scholar…
 
The actual event that I am discussing may be totally foreign to you, despite the fact that it has dominated the financial news for five or six days. There is a good reason for this if, indeed, it is true for you. The event has proven to be a really weak “news” story in my mind (not for lack of trying), but even apart from the broader news hype, it …
 
Who would have guessed that at the one-year mark of the worst market drop since the Great Financial Crisis, one of the hottest topics in financial markets is whether or not we are in a “bubble.” Am I the only one that sees a tiny bit of irony here? A year ago, the conversation was entirely focused on whether or not millions of American people were …
 
If you want a better understanding of the present state of the equity land, this is a good Dividend Cafe for you. If you want a realistic assessment of the risk of correction, this is a good Dividend Cafe for you. If you want to know what to make of higher bond yields, this is a good Dividend Cafe for you. And if you want more clarity on what the F…
 
Everything is about the Fed, bond yields, and inflation right now. Sometimes I mean that as if I am describing what really does matter, and other times I am just describing what "all the rage" is about. "Everything is about" may mean what "everything is about," or it may mean what "everyone is talking about." In this case, we have the weirdest of c…
 
Investing options are growing at a rapid pace with some what were once fringe investment areas are now making it mainstream to the tune of tens of billions or dollars. With what is happening, what does today's investor do or not do to make wise investment choices? Links mentioned in this episode:DividendCafe.comTheBahnsenGroup.com…
 
So when I launched The DC Today, it freed me up to use Dividend Cafe to be more “singular topic” focused, and I really do believe that makes for a better commentary. I have mostly not used this weekly commentary for “ad hoc” market discussion or current events, and I think this approach has enabled me to go a little deeper into topics that I believ…
 
I think there is some “economic vocabulary” in today’s Dividend Cafe that might – might! – be a turn-off to some, but will be overcome easily if you bear with it. And more importantly, there is a practical takeaway through it all that I hope you will find very rewarding. I can see myself taking a more “multi-topic” approach to Dividend Cafe in the …
 
I do some fun things today in the Dividend Cafe. We dive deep into the dilemma facing income investors, those who want and need cash flow from their portfolio. It is a conversation that can (and does) go in a number of different directions. I hope you find it riveting. And we talk a bit about bubbles, about history, about market fads and market ris…
 
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